“ Sailing routes depend primarily on weather, which changes little over the years. However, possibly as a result of the profound changes that have occurred in the ecological balance of the world environment, there have been several freak weather conditions in recent years. The most worrying aspect is that they are rarely predicted, occur in the wrong season and often in places where they have not been known before. Similarly, the violence of some tropical storms exceeds almost anything that has been experienced before. All we can do is heed those warnings, make sure that the seaworthiness of our boats is never in doubt and, whenever possible, limit our cruising to the safe seasons. Also, as the sailing community depends so much on the forces of nature, we should be the first in protecting the environment, and not contribute to its callous destruction.” These words were written in 1994 in the preface to the second edition of my book World Cruising Routes. In the intervening years, global weather conditions have seen major changes especially in the location, frequency, strength and extra-seasonal occurrence of tropical cyclones. A recently published report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that climate change is causing dangerous disruption in nature and is affecting billions of people, stressing the urgency to act.
- The oceans are getting warmer.
- The Arctic icecap is melting at a faster rate than in any recorded times as reported from Greenland this year.
- The tropical storm seasons are less clearly defined and becoming more active.
- Extra-seasonal tropical storms are more common.
- The Gulf Stream rate is slowing down.
- Coral is dying due to the oceans getting warmer.
According to a report published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), , the astonishing pace of warming in the oceans is the greatest hidden challenge of our generation, altering the distribution of marine species from microbes to whales, reducing fishing areas and starting to spread disease to humans, according to the most comprehensive analysis yet of ocean warming. If the oceans had not already absorbed an enormous amount of heat due to escalating carbon dioxide, the atmosphere would be 36° warmer...
Hurricanes seem more powerful and harder to predict
Is this a sign of the intensification of the climate emergency? The 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, for example, was the most active on record. Of the 30 named storms, 13 developed into hurricanes, and six intensified into super- hurricanes. In recent years several hurricanes have occurred in late May, others have occurred in late November and for that reason arrivals in the Eastern Caribbean should be planned for early December. These factors must be taken into account when planning a passage to or from the Caribbean.
In the Northwest Pacific both the frequency and force of typhoons is on the increase, with some super-typhoons having gusts of 200 knots or more. Typhoons have been recorded in every month of the year, with a well-defined safe season now a thing of the past. In the South Pacific the cyclone season now lasts longer, and in the Coral Sea extra-seasonal cyclones have been recorded as late as June, July and even September. In the northern Indian Ocean, the severity and destructive power of the cyclones has intensified. The 2021 season recorded five cyclones, among them two severe cyclones, while the 2020 season recorded five cyclones, four of them of severe intensity.
- Voyage planning is now even more important than in the past. By being aware of the consequences of climate change, with careful planning tropical storm seasons and critical areas can still be avoided.
- Ensure that you do not arrive in the tropics too close to the start of the safe season and allow a safemargin by leaving before its end.
- Avoid cruising during the critical period or, if you do, keep an eye on the weather and stay close to shelter.
- Preferably leave the tropics during the critical season to cruise in a safe area or
- Leave the boat unattended in a safe place, but make sure your insurance company agrees with your plans.
An insurer’s view
To find out how marine insurance companies are going to deal with the effects of climate change, I contacted Ric De Cristofano, Director of Underwriting at Topsail Insurance, and asked for his advice/comments.
“Climate change is likely to be the main topic for insurers over the next decade. There is absolutely no doubt that climate change is triggering more extreme weather events around the globe and most insurers have internal modelers who are forecasting more frequency and severity of hurricanes, and even lesser weather events, such as electrical storms. Insurers are building these into their loss modelling now for future pricing. The impact on boat owners planning to go world cruising will be both direct and indirect. The former is likely to include increased coverage restrictions along the lines of no Caribbean windstorm cover and for these risks to be rated higher by insurers. In case of the latter, the insurance industry is preparing itself for large and catastrophic insurance events to become more frequent, which ultimately will lead to cost increases across a whole range of services.”
Reliable access to weather information has become indispensable
I have been monitoring global weather conditions carefully and have regularly revised and updated World Cruising Routes, which is now in its ninth edition. Much of my work is based on the findings of regular surveys among long-distance sailors. For this report I have resorted to the same trusted method by interviewing 65 sailors on their views on climate change and its effects on future voyages. Most of them are active sailors with the majority having completed at least one circumnavigation. Whereas in a similar survey on voyage planning conducted in 2018, when there were still a few who had doubts about the seriousness of this global phenomenon, this time, with one notable exception, everyone agreed that the threat posed by the changes in climatic conditions posed a serious threat, not only to future voyages but to mankind itself.
To conclude the survey, contributors were asked whether this factor would influence their own decision were they to plan a world voyage now. Without exception each stated that while they were aware of the consequences of climate change, they would take that factor into account but would still be prepared to plan and leave on a long voyage. Virtually all survey participants stressed that reliable access to weather information is fundamental in a constantly changing world. Access to this data is now (thankfully) much easier, thanks to new players in the field of satellite connections (see our article in MW190: Starlink Internet Service Provider: Revolution or Source of Disappointment?). PredictWind has established itself in recent years as the most popular source of weather data and forecasts for sailors on an ocean passage. Nick Olson, Development Manager at PredictWind, pointed out that, “Weather events will be more extreme, but that is the type of event we aim to avoid already. Seasonal planning should not change greatly, as what we do already is trying to avoid extreme weather. We have some new tools coming online in the next few months, both aimed at extreme weather.
Our weather routing tool relies on forecast modelling, which will adapt to climate changes and predict the expected conditions like they do now in producing the short-term forecasts.”
Heading for the poles rather than the tropics?
One visible effect of climate change is the increasing numbers of sailors heading for high latitudes in the belief that climate change in the polar regions would result in more benign conditions. After all, I benefited from this myself with the successful transit of the Northwest Passage, which was indeed possible as a direct result of climate change. The Northwest Passage has been described as the ‘canary in the mine’ of climate change because whatever happens there will eventually have repercussions for climate conditions in other parts of the world. Voyages to Antarctica may fall in the same category, and no one is in a better position to comment on this matter than Skip Novak, widely considered as the world’s authority on polar sailing. “With respect to the impact of climate change on voyaging to the far south there are two things at play, weather and sea ice concentrations. For those of us who sailed regularly in the Southern Ocean from 40 years ago, the consensus of colleagues (both racers and cruisers) is that sea conditions seem much more volatile than before. In the Southern Ocean the westerly winds are being compromised by winds pushing through from the north. This causes the steady long swells we have formerly experienced to be less consistent with more ‘washing machine’ like conditions.”
Even greater autonomy
Most sailors were determined to continue with the plans, but highlighted the need to be self-sufficient, something that became very clear during the recent pandemic and the restrictions imposed in countries, which closed their ports to any vessel. This is not a climatic event, of course, but the global pandemic and its consequences have forced sailors to rethink all their old certainties when it comes to port facilities. The same applies, perhaps more gradually, to climate change: for example, can you be sure that a specific Greek port, in the middle of a heatwave, will be able to provide you with a full tank of water?
Admiral Eric Abadie, who has retired after an illustrious career in the French Navy, and is currently on a world voyage, is more concerned by the “impact in the visited countries, both because of the climate change itself but perhaps even more because of the political disorders induced by the climate change in those countries.” What stands out from my exchanges with such a variety of sailors is their positive, optimistic attitude. Even the person who expressed doubts about climate change wanted it to be known that whatever might be coming, “Even a bad day at sea is better than a good day at the office.”
Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. Three names for the same phenomenon
In the Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific, we refer to hurricanes. In the North-West Pacific, the term typhoon is used, while the term cyclone is reserved for the Indian Ocean and South Pacific.
To be considered a hurricane, typhoon or cyclone, a weather phenomenon must generate average winds in excess of Force 12 on the Beaufort Scale (64 knots).
Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named according to lists drawn up by America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These lists are now validated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization.
Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones have sometimes been named since the 18th Century, but usage has evolved considerably. In the Atlantic (basin 11), female first names were used for a long time, until 1979, when it was decided that hurricanes would be named with alternating male and female first names (in English, Spanish and French), according to a principle of 6-year cycles and six lists. Even-numbered years begin with a male name, and odd-numbered years with a female name. Since 2006, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones throughout the world have all been given names. But they don’t have to be first names: flowers and birds can also be used...
Cornell’s Ocean Atlas - third edition Pilot charts of all the world’s oceans
12 years have passed since the publication of the first edition of Cornell’s Ocean Atlas. And Jimmy Cornell is convinced that, during this period, the effects of global warming have intensified dramatically, affecting weather patterns the world over. This is why the charts presented in the third edition (only just published!) are based on fully up-to-date meteorological information. The author is keen to highlight climate changes that are likely to have an impact on ocean passage-making. One of the most notable of these is the gradual decrease in the regularity and reliability of the trade winds, as many boaters on frequently sailed ocean routes can attest. But for Jimmy, the most significant and visible disruption has been the increase in the intensity and extent of tropical cyclones, both in terms of the length of the cyclone or hurricane seasons and the areas affected. This phenomenon obviously has a considerable impact on planning and safety for cruising in general. The extent of the ocean areas affected by tropical storms is therefore highlighted on the monthly maps in this third edition.
In these times of climatic uncertainty, the safety factor in passage planning is becoming ever more significant than in the past, and this atlas will help sailors to plan a safe voyage.
Authors: Jimmy and Ivan Cornell
Languages: English and French
156 pages
Price: € 99
www.cornellsailing.com
